Why is it almost a given that new air traffic management programs, big and small, usually end up in trouble, fail to deliver their promised benefits or drag on for years swallowing money like there was no tomorrow? We could count on one hand the number of truly successful ATM projects of any significance.
Doubts are now rising about NextGen, the FAA’s flagship project, and if Calvin L. Scovel III, the Department of Transportation’s Inspector General is to be believed, there is major turbulence ahead.
In a letter sent to the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, the IG concludes that the FAA’s slow progress in implementing the recommendations of the RTCA NextGen Mid-Term Implementation Task Force and the start-up problems with ERAM (En-route Automation Modernization) make it doubtful whether the agency will in fact be able to meet the mid-term goals of the NextGen implementation program.
Reaction to the letter was swift. “Tighter oversight of the FAA is a must and delay in delivering NextGen benefits is not acceptable” countered John L. Mica, the incoming House Committee Chairman.
The letter was originally requested by the Committee and its 11 pages paint a sad picture of the state the implementation program is in. Although Dallas and Washington D.C. airports have seen airspace procedures improved by the study teams assigned to them, there is no progress, says the letter, on integrating improvements in airspace design and procedures at other high density airports.
At the same time software glitches in the Lockheed Martin ERAM system as implemented at the pilot site Salt Lake City mean a delay in deployment of the system at 20 en-route centers of three to six years and hundreds of millions in cost overruns. ERAM figures prominently as a prerequisite in several NextGen elements and a delay in its implementation will impact the main project well into the future.
The biggest danger in all this of course is the possibility of a loss of confidence by the airspace users in NextGen. If the benefits fail to materialize, support for this major initiative can evaporate quickly… and there is no plan B. It is not clear yet how the FAA will go about addressing the situation. There can be little doubt that they do have the wherewithal to make NextGen reality but they will need to do better, much better, than was the case so far.