Although officially Boeing maintains that they are still only evaluating their options concerning the future of the 737 (re-engining versus an all new aircraft), CEO Jim McNerney, speaking at the Cowen and Company Aerospace and Defense Conference in New York, basically confirmed that they will build an all new narrowbody to counter Airbus’s A320NEO.
Well, what did you expect? Boeing thinks that their loyal customers will wait for the new plane to come out around 2020, shunning the Airbus offering which will automatically become obsolete the moment Airbus decides to build an A320 replacement some time after the NEO has been put on the market.
CEOs are not given to proclaiming things without a basis and Mr. McNerney’s words that “it is not a done deal yet but they have a strong bias towards a new design” do mean more than just a tentative plan. Bet they will do it?
Airbus and Boeing have been facing down each other for some time now over this issue, with the likes of Bombardier and Embrear watching anxiously. Their future in the non-regional aircraft market will be affected in a big way depending on what the big boys decide.
Airbus made its move at the end of last year when they announced the decision to re-engine the 320 family. Although they took orders for that beast, one cannot but wonder: were they doing this to force the hand of their arch-rival and in fact they had the blueprints for a new 320 already in Toulouse? If the NEO is suddenly dropped now, the answer is probably yes…
There can be little doubt that an all new aircraft design can beat a re-engined one with hands down even if we consider that the so desirable new-new technologies are still over the horizon. Gathering all current knowledge and innovation into a new design should produce something really attractive in terms of operating costs. At the end of the day, it all boils down to when such a new design can be delivered?
Since the new 737 (or whatever it will be called) needs new engines too, their availability is one of the determining factors. The choice ranges from the current offerings from Pratt & Whitney and CFM International to the Advanced3 Trent from Rolls. This latter should be ready around 2018. So a new 737 at the end of the decade sounds like a realistic proposition. This still means a wait of some 3-4 years after the NEO hits the tarmac but, as we said before, Boeing believes customers will wait to avoid buying an aircraft with built-in obsolescence.
Would it not be wonderful if Airbus also decided to come up with a new design? We would live through the rest of this decade with the suspense of new babies being gestated in both Seattle and Toulouse… It has been a long time indeed since something like that was in the works!
