That high speed train lines are a direct threat to air services between city pairs within an hour from each other is no big news and a good example is the almost total disappearance of air connections between Paris and Brussels for example. The biggest assault on air services by high speed trains has been seen in China which embarked on a massive project to build a network of some 25 thousand kilometers of trackage on which trains swish along at up to 380 kilometers an hour. Airlines are already feeling the pain with as much as 50 % of their passengers deserting to the trains on some routes where both services are available.
Roger-Wilco has written about this subject a while back. Read that article here.
While in most countries the rail system is managed by the Ministry of Transport, in China this privilege was given to a separate Ministry which grew all powerful over time, until it is a state unto itself with almost unlimited funds and little interference from other parts of the Chinese government.
While the idea of competing with the airlines head-on with a high speed train network has its merits, the economic viability of the Chinese rail project was often questioned. However, with funding apparently never facing a problem, the very term “economic viability” assumed an all new meaning.
Now however the airlines affected may sigh with relief.
The head of the special Rail Ministry has been arrested on corruption charges and one of the likely results is that the Ministry will lose its independent status with the project being merged into the broader transport strategy context. Apparently the Minister is not alone amongst the culprits. Several of the people involved in purchasing equipment abroad have been found to posses Swiss bank accounts…
It is very unlikely that the pace and scope of the rail project will stay the same after this scandal. The independent minded Minister had been a thorn in the eyes of many people and they will be only too glad to dismantle his handiwork. So, the hope of Chinese airlines that the poaching of their passengers will at least slow down is not at all unreasonable.
Of course the fact remains that nothing beats super fast trains on trips that take about an hour by air. It would be a pity if the Chinese now went overboard in the reverse direction and gutted too much of this magnificent project. A much better course of action would be to define an integrated, multimodal approach to transportation that gave the trains and the airlines opportunities to develop their respective businesses in the context best suited to their strengths.
What timing! Today marks the start of the UK Government’s ‘Consultation’ on the first stage of High Speed 2, the proposed high speed rail line connecting London and Birmingham, initially, with eventual extension to Manchester, Leeds (via a branch), and Scotland. High Speed 1 is the existing line from London to the Channel Tunnel. This being the UK, HS2 will not link with HS1, so those wanting fast services direct from the provinces to the Continent will be disappointed.
The costs of these lines is eye watering. The first stage of HS2 is said to be estimated and £17bn (about €20bn). The total cost of whole thing would presumably be in the order of £60bn.
A lot of arguments surround the spoiling of agreeable countryside along the route, which of course the proponents of the scheme dismiss as ‘NIMBYism’ (Not In My Back Yard). But at last now more people are questioning the economic ‘case’ for such expenditure. Apparently to bump up the numbers, the study assumed that rail travellers are totally unproductive while travelling (which increases the benefits of going faster); do they think everyone is just surfing porn sites while rattling away at their lap tops on the move? They also assumed wildly inflated estimates for the traffic volumes, and assertions of improved service for a large population are questionable as no stations are planned between London and Birmingham…
It makes the price of an airway between North and South (er, free) rather attractive for the small number of people who really need to travel quickly between the two. And for the rest, a far more effective strategy would surely be to look at modernised signalling that would allow much closer spacing between trains (as on TGV lines) which would benefit everyone , not just those wanting to travel end to end. Oh, and the time saving to Birmingham for all this money? About 20 minutes.
Our new government wants to set out its green credentials, which weren’t helped by their first act which was to rule out the construction of a tidal barrage across the Servern Estuary, which would have dwarfed the risible capacity of the ‘sustainable’ wind farms sprouting round the coast. So they pretend this is a greener alternative to internal air travel. Actually the monstrous costs start to make air travel look rather good, and of course if people no longer want to travel between London and Scotland in large numbers, then it costs nothing to roll up the airway, can’t say the same for the rails.
Watch this space.