When SESAR was launched all kinds of claims were made for why it would succeed where every other project before it had failed. It was certainly bigger and more all-encompassing than its predecessors; there was more, far more, money involved than ever before; and it had the backing of the EU’s Single European Sky initiative. A baby born with such credentials need not worry about the future, right? Wrong!
The one thing SESAR has not yet found a solution for is the age old problem of chicken and egg… Airlines will not equip until there are benefits and it is not possible to provide, even early, benefits until aircraft are equipped. The myth that airlines will equip for improved ATM if there is a clear business case is indeed just that, a myth. First of all airlines will normally spurn any business case, however promising, that does not give them a 2-3 year return on investment and very few, if any, ATM projects can do that. But even if we disregard this, we have seen in the past how otherwise perfectly good business cases were still not enough to make the industry move en-masse. Not that the ground side is much better… As the sad track record of ATM projects in Europe demonstrates, airlines and ANSPs can happily share the honor of being the cause of missed deadlines and missed opportunities.
SESAR has not provided a solution to this yet and if they fail to do so, its jumbo size will mean a bang on a jumbo scale.
However, there is an important difference compared with the past. SESAR has recognized this problem, the SESAR JU is talking about it quite openly and they have a stated intention to find a solution.
The recognition comes in the form of a study created by a high level task force composed of Patrick Ky, SESAR JU Executive Director, David McMillan, Director General EUROCONTROL and Matthius Reutte, Director General of the EC’s DG MOVE. The study looks at the deployment and financing issues surrounding SESAR.
If we look at the numbers, the magnitude of the problem becomes apparent. SESAR requires a total investment in the air and on the ground in excess of 30 billion Euros over a ten year period. ANSPs and airports will spend a cool 8 billion and the airlines will need to spend some 2 million Euros on EACH of their aircraft to make them suitable for getting the benefits in the SESAR environment.
With this kind of investment, the first thing airline been-counters will need to do is forget in a hurry any idea of a 2-3 year return on investment… Make it 5 years and then we can talk about the benefits.
So, indeed, what are the benefits you buy with your hard earned cash?
There is little doubt that the ATM concept put forward by SESAR can potentially launch the industry into the 21st century and provide the momentum for many years to come. It is about time too. If you look at the level of advanced technology embodied in the materials used in aircraft like the 787, the engines and some of the on-board automation, and compare it to even the best ATM system available on the ground, the sophistication gap is at least 20 years. Current ATC procedures and the way information is handled form a definite block to achieving the capacity needed for the future.
OK, this is no big news; this is why SESAR was created in the first place. But the question remains: who should pay?
Unfortunately it is not so that SESAR or the ANSPs are in fact offering performance guarantees like engine and airframe manufacturers usually do when they want to sell their products. No sir, the ANSPs are mum about what will happen and when they do talk, they are saying that the performance targets of the EC are too ambitious… Not very encouraging for people being asked to cough up 2 million Euros per aircraft!
But if the airlines and even some ANSPs are reluctant to pay because they do not see the benefits coming quickly enough, who should pay?
One aspect of aviation that is often forgotten is that end-to-end it is the biggest creator of wealth on the planet. If you consider everything from the building of aircraft through operating them and all the ancillary businesses around them, including airports, the number of jobs, the total turnover and the pull on research and technology is nothing short of phenomenal. If we also consider the indispensible service aviation now provides to the community at large, it becomes clear that having a cost-effective, environmentally sound air transportation system is in the interest of everyone, even those who would rather be seen dead than sitting on board an aircraft.
But if this is so, does it not stand to reason that at a time when this indispensible service needs to take a huge step forward in order to continue its essential role in the life of the community, that community should accept its responsibility and co-finance the development? This is not like when the banks needed a bail-out following the failure of the financial system. It is a quantum jump in quality and the basis for the future for an industry that the community needs and which cannot be replaced by anything else. The support is not needed because of past mis-management; it is needed simply because only the community has the means and wherewithal to help SESAR happen.
Building roads on the ground, having an effective police force and so on are accepted community projects. The infrastructure to enable flying to take place is no less part of the things a community needs to enable it to run its life effectively. Why not finance also developments in the airborne infrastructure in a way similar to roads and other common facilities?
One of the important new elements in SESAR is the concept that aircraft are in fact part of the total ATM network, they are just nodes on the network, totally integrated with it.
If we take this seriously and accept that public funds should be used to pay for at least a part of SESAR, paying for the new avionics from public funds is a natural. It is all part of the infrastructure…