The pessimism of an optimist

Some readers of Roger-Wilco asked me why we tend to report on problems so often. The answer is simple. Because almost nobody else seems to be doing it.
If you read the official communiqués from various projects, they do tend to project a much brighter picture and if you read only those, you will sleep well. All is fine in the world of ATM. I am not saying that the official sources of information are saying things that are not true. But what they often do is leave out the context or simply ignore certain pertinent facts.
Let me give you a few recent examples.
SESAR has split its plan for implementing things into three packages, IP1 to IP3. Everyone is now raving over IP1 and the super effort going into realizing it. Great. What is rarely added is that the content of IP1 is nothing more than what should have happened under the previous European project, ATM2000+ anyway and some of the elements got delayed by 3+ years because everything stopped while the world was waiting for the SESAR miracle to happen…
A while ago the folks in the FAB Europe Central announced that airlines will be saving millions in fuel due to the more direct routes now formally agreed for night operations. What they did not add was the simple fact that most aircraft have been flying those direct routings at night for many years now on an ad hoc basis and these were now formalized. Sure, being able to plan for the shorter route brings some savings but to claim credit for the millions that were already being saved is not exactly how these things should be communicated.
SESAR has some 300 projects running… When was the last time you read in their official communications how far those projects have come and whether or not they are on schedule?

When was the last time you saw a frank and open discussion (outside of the LinkedIn subculture) about the way CDM is being handled in Europe, how the ETSI/EUROCAE steamroller has churned out a community specification that formalizes one specific approach to CDM when CDM, in the views of many, is about flexibility and local adaptation?
Comparing the situation with that in the US, the differences are remarkable. You read regularly about the FAA’s problems with ERAM or the funding for NextGen because the trade press has official communiqués and reports from supervisory authorities to go on. In Europe we seem to be shy of putting the cards on the table and will admit problems only when things blow up in a big way.
Why is this a pity? Well, I would also rather report on nothing but successes but we live in the real world and problems are expected and should be met head on. Not talking about them is the wrong approach because news about them come out anyway and writing exclusively about how successful we are kills the credibility of that kind of communication.
It is also not true that all-sunshine reporting will motivate people while talking about problems will have the opposite effect.
I am sure you have heard about the parable of the two rooms half filled with horse manure with a kid put in each room with the doors closed for a couple of hours. When the door was opened in the first room, they found the kid crying and holding his nose in disgust. Going into the second room, they found the kid digging furiously, muttering: with so much horseshit around, there must be a pony in here somewhere.
I think most of us are like the second kid. Continue reading Roger-Wilco and you will find the pony.

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